EMU organized a seminar titled “The Looming Civil War in America – A Gathering Storm.”

The opening speech of the seminar was delivered by Prof. Dr. Ahmet Sözen, Chair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations and the CPC. The guest speaker was Graham Day, a former officer in the British and Canadian navies, as well as various international peace-building agencies such as the United Nations. Graham Day started his presentation by explaining that the likelihood of a civil war breaking out in America has become a stronger possibility over time. Day detailed his topic under three subheadings: motives, means, and opportunities. Day conveyed that motives are the driving factors that push people towards engaging in violent conflicts. He pointed out that poverty is often the main reason why individuals join extremist groups. When discussing means, Day explained how and with what individuals engage in violent conflicts. He described how cyber elements that encourage civil disobedience, the widespread carrying of weapons by individuals, the politicization of income distribution, and the loss of legitimacy in the court system all contribute to the means of conflict.

Regarding opportunities, Day stated that they are events that ignite individuals and create the conditions for a civil war. He provided examples of opportunities such as anti-vaccine movements, people angered by excessive responses from law enforcement, and indigenous rights aligning with economic issues, which mobilize people. Finally, Day used the Cynefin Framework to outline five lessons to be learned from the Golden Age of Peacekeeping and discussed the importance of strong leadership, the advantages of having a law and order regime, the need to include political parties, the importance of compromise over economics, and the role of non-kinetic actions in building trust and legitimacy. During the seminar, Graham Day responded to questions from students, moderated by Prof. Dr. Ahmet Sözen, and discussed potential future scenarios in America. At the end of the seminar, Prof. Dr. Sözen presented Graham Day with a certificate of appreciation.